Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
